The end-of-history illusion
You can change yourself, but not others
Lots of buildings, stations, universities, airports… change gradually during time. Sometimes even you don’t go to this places in a while, but you feel the change.
But what about yourself? How much have you changed? How much have you changed during the last 20 years? Don’t think of the external issues (job, home, appearance) focus on your personality and your values. Now compare that person with the one you are now. On a scale from zero (unchanged) to ten (my whole being has changed), how do you rate your changes? Most people answer this question by a number from 2 to 4 regarding their personality, values and ….
Now try again: how much would you change in 20 years? The score is even less this time (between 0 to 1). In other word, people don’t expect a change in future or at least not a significant one. Exactly the opposite thing which happens to airports, buildings and cities. Funny! Is it possible that today is the day we stopped changing? Obviously not! Daniel Gilbert, Harvard’s university social psychologist, calls this the end-of-history illusion. The truth is, we are going to change in future as much as we changed in the past. On which way? This is not clear, but we can guarantee that you are going to have different personality and values.
But let’s put aside concepts like personality and values for a moment. Just consider the things you love. Gilbert has a creative idea for measuring the extent to which people’s interests change. He asked people two questions: 1. What was your favorite band 10 years ago and how much would you pay for the ticket of this band now? 2. What is your favorite band today and how much are you going to pay for a ticket 10 years later? The answer to these questions differed significantly. The price people are going to pay for their favorite band 10 years later is 61% more than the price they would have paid for their ex-favorite band. This is a sign to prove the-end-of-history illusion and the instability of our tastes.
I have good news and bad news. First, Good news: you can change your personality by practice. But not much. The most effective way to control personality development is to choose your life patterns, so be careful by your models.
Bad news: you cannot change others, even your partner or your children. People should be motivated to change themselves (the motivation should be internal) external pressures or rational arguments are useless.
One golden rule to a good life is: avoid situations in which you have to change others. This simple strategy will protect you from misfortunes, costs and frustrations to an acceptable degree. But some people ignore this simple rule.
Another related rule which may be useful is that: work with the ones you love and are trustworthy. As Charlie Munger quoted: Work only with people you enjoy and trust and put aside others.
